Global natural rubber output is still in the growth cycle, and the growth rate of terminal rubber demand in the Chinese market continues to decline. The supply and demand relationship in the natural rubber market remains oversupplied.
2011 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱨᱮ 1991 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱨᱮ 15% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ 2015 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ. my opinion, the chances of the shanghai-gum 1901 contract going out of the rally over the next two months are already limited, and the possibility of ending the contract in the current fluctuation range is high.
ᱠᱷᱟᱥ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ 1993 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 2013 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 2013 ᱥᱟᱞᱮ ᱨᱮ, 297, 2013, https://vestructions, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ https://shirtions, https://vestructions, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱟᱹᱢᱩᱱᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱩᱫᱽ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ 2019 ᱨᱮ, 2015 ᱨᱮ, 1975 ᱨᱮ, 2017 ᱨᱮ, 2015 ᱨᱮ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ 2005 ᱨᱮ, ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱜᱮ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾ 2019 ᱨᱮ, 1978 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱨᱮ, 2015 ᱨᱮ, ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 2015 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱨᱮ, ᱩᱫᱽᱭᱚᱜᱽ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ, ᱟᱨ ᱥᱚᱱᱜᱚᱛᱷᱟᱱ ᱠᱚ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱬᱟ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱠᱚ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ 57,000 tons higher than last year.In particular, the high price of rubber warehouse receipt in Shanghai futures exchange has a more obvious impact on the futures price, which makes the price of shanghai-gum 1901 lower than the current performance of shanghai-gum 1801 contract.While the apparent inventory growth over the same period is slightly higher than the import growth over the same period, which ᱚᱱᱟ ᱡᱟᱭᱜᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱟᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱜᱮ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱤᱡ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱫᱟᱢ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱤᱡ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱤᱡ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱤᱡ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱤᱡ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱱᱤᱛ ᱦᱟᱵᱤᱡ ᱫᱚ 1993 ᱟᱨ 2013 ᱨᱮ 2014 ᱟᱨ 2019 ᱨᱮ 25% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1994-25 ᱨᱮ, ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1.9% ᱫᱚ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ 2014 ᱥᱟᱞᱦᱟ ᱨᱮ 45.5% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱫᱚ 2016 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1.4 millions hophocks ᱠᱚ ᱨᱮ 6 ᱯᱨᱚᱛᱤᱥ ᱠᱚ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱠᱮᱫᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱨᱮ , ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱯ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱾
ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱪᱷᱟᱰᱟ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ 1980 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱨᱮ 2015 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 2015 ᱥᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱨᱮ 10 ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱩᱫᱽ ᱨᱮ 1,000 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱾ 2.598 million tons, with an increase of about 390,000 tons.However, the output of natural rubber in Vietnam and India decreased in the first three quarters of 2018, among which Vietnam reduced output by about 130,000 tons and India reduced output by about 40,000 tons. However, it is still difficult to change the fact that the global natural rubber production has maintained a relatively large increase.Therefore, with no significant reduction in domestic production of the two major natural rubber main producers in Thailand and Indonesia, the global natural rubber oversupply will remain for a long time.